danial

PREFACE: This is my opinion and not fact. I welcome others opinions for, against, or totally radical from either category. I look forward to your responses and own opinion. I started this post in another forum, but it turned in to a total **** show. This forum, in my opinion, the user base is more educated and should produce some healthy discussion.

So the PS3 has all been delayed until November of 2006 for world wide release:http://www.gamespot.com/news/6145972.html

To my point. The PS3, being released this late, has already been defeated here in North America and Europe. Microsoft did stumble out of the blocks at launch but has installed small user base that is going to keep growing while the PS3 is stlll waiting to be released. By the time the PS3 launches, Microsoft will command a large share of the market and the share that they don't command they will win over with a price cut. See this is where Microsoft is genius. The problem with the first Xbox is they locked themselves in long term contracts on fixed prices. So as the price of the Nvidia GPU went down to the rest of the market, Microsoft was still paying premium prices for an mid-level GPU. The same goes for the processor that Intel provided and the DVD drives from various manufacters. This killed them since they were all ready losing a significant amount of money on each unit sold and when the price cut came, the bill of materials was still the same. Now with the Xbox 360, Microsoft wised up and followed the route that Nintendo had taken with the GameCube. Contracts with adjustable declining rates. Microsoft will still spend a slight premium on their parts, since the ATI GPU they are using is custom to the Xbox 360, but it won't be exoberant. Hence the X-mas time price cut will be KEY since Microsoft won't take a major hit in the money lost in per unit sold, and when mommy and daddy go to buy a new game system for Johnny 8-year old and see the Xbox 360 for $299 with all the bells and whistles and then see the PS3 for $499-$599, well the choice is clear. Xbox 360 most likely have the same games, Johnny will be happy, and the parents saved $200-$300.

Now the one thing that the PS3 does have going for it is Blu-ray. Blu-ray is going to be expensive, but Sony is going to provide a gaming machine AND a quality Blu-ray player at the bargin price of $500 (predicted price, though. Definitely not set in stone). Taking into consideration that Blu-ray players now are going to be costing $1000+ and they won't drop much more by November 2006 since those hardware companies want to profit off their product are not looking to create and installed user base by taking a loss on their hardware and making up for it on software sales. If Blu-ray movies are in full force and in demand come November 2006, the PS3 could do very well for itself, but it is going to take longer than 8 months to establish Blu-ray as viable movie medium. People are very invested in to their DVD home theatres and upgrading to a 1080p TV and Blu-ray player may deter them.

My second point, and not so business related, is that the Xbox 360 is going to match and/or blow the doors off the first generation PS3 titles. Me personally as game developer, going over in detail the Xbox 360 hardware, there is wealth of power there that we all ready have a grasp on. I do not develop on the Xbox 360, but from an engineering stand point, it is mind boggling. Bottle necks are virutally gone, the potential for complex physics is abound, and the 64-bit RISC processors are damn efficent. I have recently seen the Unreal 3 engine first hand early this week and it was jaw dropping. To put things in perspective, examining a gun in this pre-production game, the polygon count came in at a shade over 6,000 polygons. The detail was incredible and goregous. The average player model in the Source Engine (Half-Life/Counter-Strike) is only 6,000 polygons. It is truly impressive and even this level of graphical power is still in it infantile stages on the Xbox 360. Come November, when games finally release to the Xbox 360 that are polished and built for the system (not hasty ports like Quake 4, or even Call of Duty 2), it is going to push systems out the door in a hurry. A system that can match the PS3 and probably surpass it at first, and $300 less, the choice is clear. Now I understand some are you are thinking "graphics don't make games, gameplay does." And you know what, you're right, because you are educated gamers. However development usually focuses on joe-blow consumer who is easily drawn in by shiny objects and really could give a **** once the game is paid for by the consumer. A sad, a very true reality. (Side Note: Even though I am young and just starting out I am making it a mission statement that I will not settle for an utter crap game. I will leave a project if I feel what we are going to release is going to be ****. I still keep true to my gaming roots). Now the PS3 is incredibly powerful, but technology is very alien to me, and even to some very experienced and talented developers I know personally in the industry. The PS3 is going to provide a wealth of power, but until we can really wrap our heads around it, it is going to remain largely untapped and not blow the Xbox 360 out of the water until much later aka Xmas 2007.

So in conclusion, I envision the PS3 having amazing success in Japan. Sony has a strong fan base there and the Japanese gamers are clearly not digging the Xbox 360. However here in North America and Europe, the average gamer is gobbling up the Xbox 360 as fast as possible (which isn't too fast, since Microsoft has been slow keeping up with demand) and Microsoft is building their base while their developers and working on and in polishing some very impressive and visually stunning games. I'm sorry PS3, but I think you lost this war before it even started.

Last thoughts on the Revolution
Now I am really loving Nintendo's Revolution, believe it or not. Yes, at first I was very turned off by the "wand-like" controller, but I really think Nintendo going to have great success across the globe. See, they are not looking to compete with the Xbox 360 or the PS3, not at all. Nintendo view's the Revolution as a separate product all together, and will market it that way. I have not seen a Revolution, or even its specs, but its funky controller lets the mind run wild with new game innovations, which this industry really needs, and the back library that Nintendo is going to provide is brillant. Old school retro gamers and the casual gamer will gobble this unit up and at $99-$149, its quite affordable.

EDIT for grammar